- Cardano ETF approval odds jumped from 63% to 87% following Grayscale’s updated SEC filing.
- SEC pushes final Cardano ETF decision to October as Grayscale updates multiple crypto fund filings.
Grayscale has filed an amended S-1 document to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding its proposed Cardano exchange-traded fund (ETF). This filing follows its prior 19b-4 filing, and provides information regarding the manner in which the fund would operate in the event of approval.
The S-1 explains the structure of the ETF, which is to own ADA directly with no leverage or derivatives. The asset custodian would be Coinbase Custody. Should it be cleared, the ETF would list on NYSE Arca as GADA.
Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart noted that the S-1 is an amendment, not a new application. He stated, “These aren’t new filings, they are amended versions of earlier submissions.” This suggests Grayscale is continuing its work toward launching the product.
New: @Grayscale submits S-1s for both their Cardano and Polkadot ETFs. They had already submitted 19b-4s for each of these — so these aren't brand new filings pic.twitter.com/JtcVBiKU2T
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) August 29, 2025
SEC Pushes Back Cardano ETF Ruling
The SEC has delayed its decision on the proposed Cardano ETF until October 26, 2025. The original deadline was August 27. NYSE Arca first filed the proposal in February, and since then, Grayscale has made several changes to the application.
Meanwhile, the delay reflects the SEC’s current review process, as it manages nearly 100 digital asset ETF filings. This backlog is the largest the agency has handled in the crypto space. While the Cardano filing remains active, the timeline has shifted.
The commission has also recently clarified its stance on crypto-related activities, such as staking, which could shape how it approaches ETF approvals going forward.
Market Prediction Platforms Show Rising Confidence
Polymarket data shows that the odds of a Cardano ETF gaining approval have climbed to 87%, up from 63% earlier in August. These figures suggest traders are responding to Grayscale’s latest filing.
Back in July, the approval probability had peaked at 89% before dropping. The rebound may be linked to the progress shown in the updated application. These changes have caught the attention of retail and institutional market watchers alike.
Cardano’s current price is $0.8236. The token has dropped 9.65% over the past week and is slightly down by 0.38% in the last 24 hours. Daily trading volume is around $1.53 billion.
In addition to Cardano, Grayscale has also modified its S-1 filing for the Polkadot ETF. Both products mirror each other in terms of direct asset exposure and having the same custodian. This complements the company’s approach with their other crypto funds.
Grayscale seems to be continuing with the plan of looking for compliant offerings for multiple cryptocurrencies. These recent filings indicate that the company is following the SEC’s schedule, making changes as appropriate during the waiting period for the final ruling.
